In 1919, just after the gut-wrenching trauma of the First World War, Oswald Spangler published the first volume of his monumental work, The Decline of the West. In this work Spangler presented his theory of the rise and fall of nations. It was a pessimistic work in which he theorized that Western Civilization was on the decline. Several years later, in 1934, he published a second book, The Hour of Decision. In this book he foresaw the Second World War and warned that it might well lead to the destruction of Western Civilization.
Years have passed and Spangler’s pessimistic book has been all but forgotten. After all, the Second World War did come but it did not signal the end of Western Civilization. But what is not appreciated by most is just how close Spangler’s prediction came to be fulfilled to the letter. In fact had it not been for one aging English politician who foresaw the same thing Spangler did the West might well have fallen and the world could have slipped into a new dark age. The politician I am referring to is Winston Churchill.
Churchill was far from a perfect man. In fact, one would not have to look too far to find things to dislike about the man. But there was a moment when this flawed old Lion saved the West from the fate forecast by Spangler. In his book, Five Days in London, John Lukas explains:[i]
“The setting is London, and the five days are Friday through Tuesday, 24 to 28 May 1940. Then and there Adolf Hitler came closest to winning the Second World War, his war.
One man knew how close Hitler had come to his ultimate victory, Winston Churchill. In the years after the war he gave the title The Hinge of Fate to the fourth volume of his War Memoirs. That volume dealt with the year 1942, near the end of which the Germans were turned back on many fronts. In November 1942 he said to the British people that this was not yet the beginning of the end but perhaps the end of the beginning. November 1942 was the military hinge of fate on the battlefields of Egypt, North Africa, and Russia: the military turning points. Even then Britain could not win the war. In the end America and Russia did. But in May 1940 Churchill was the one who did not lose it. Then and there he saved Britain, and Europe and Western Civilization.”
As I read Lukas’ book I was stuck with just how close Spangler’s prophecy came to being fulfilled. It really came down to that one stubborn man. How different history would have been had Churchill not been there! Simply stated, Britain would have capitulated and Hitler would have won the war.
Of course, Hitler would have attacked Russia and who knows whether he or Stalin would have prevailed; but either way Europe would have entered a dark age. Nazi or Communist. Hitler or Stalin. Take your pick.
But as Lukas points out, defeating the one dark power required more than the grit of Churchill, it still took the United States, and perhaps even more importantly, that other dark power, the Soviet Union, to defeat the Nazis. After that, had it not been for the United States’ willingness to fight the Cold War that other dark power would have prevailed and Spangler’s prophecy might still have been fulfilled. So looking back it can be said that had it not been for Winston Churchill’s determination not to lose the war and the United States willingness to fight the Cold War Western Civilization would have fallen and the world would be in a dark age.
In retrospect, Spangler was right. The West, except for one old Englishman and the still vigorous United States, had run out of steam. Spiritually and morally drained, Europe required the United States first to save them from the Nazis, to rebuild it after the war, and finally to save it from Communism.
But has the danger past? Alarmingly, the trends that signaled Spangler of a civilization in its twilight in 1919 are still there and they have spread, but this time there is no Churchill and the United States is running out of steam. Ronald Regan said, “It’s morning in America.” Perhaps it was, but the day seems to be passing quickly and there is a feel of twilight in the air.
[i] John Lukas,: May 1940, p. 1-2
